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Beijing likely to receive one-third of annual rainfall in 24 hrs amid Typhoon Dolphin_我的网站

一 |     8月25日消息，高盛8月24日发布的《中国半导体国产化进程持续推进》报告指出，中国先进芯片自主化正迎来关键拐点。随着国内晶圆代工厂快速扩产，中国7纳米及以下先进制程晶圆的供需缺口将从2025年的92%大幅收窄至2035年的34%。     届时，中国先进制程晶圆月产能将达到41万片，而国内需求预计为61.9万片。    

    Local militia personnel clear water and drain waterlogged roads in Hefei, East China's Anhui Province, on August 11, 2026. Photo: IC
Typhoon Dolphin stopped being numbered at 5 pm on Tuesday, however its impacts continue as it triggered strong winds and heavy rainfall in inland areas as far north as Beijing. The National Meteorological Center (NMC) issued an orange alert for heavy rain, along with blue alerts for severe convective weather. Some areas are expected to see rainfall of 250 to 300 millimeters, CCTV News reported on Tuesday.
The China Meteorological Administration maintained a Level II emergency response on Tuesday as Typhoon Dolphin, its remnants, and cold air were forecast to bring heavy rain to parts of eastern and northern China including Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei and Beijing over the next three days, CCTV reported. 
From Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning, parts of multiple regions including western Jiangsu, north-central Anhui, Henan, central and western Hubei, western and southern Hebei, Beijing, central and western Inner Mongolia, northwestern Heilongjiang, and southwestern Yunnan are expected to experience heavy to torrential rainfall. Some areas in central Henan could see extreme rainfall, with accumulated precipitation reaching 250 to 300 millimeters, according to CCTV. 
Beijing activated a Level II flood-control emergency response at 9 am on Tuesday, with authorities at all levels throughout the city mobilizing flood prevention measures, CCTV reported. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Natural Resources launched a Level IV geological disaster defense response for Beijing at 3 pm on Tuesday.
According to the Beijing Meteorological Service's forecast, from Tuesday evening through Thursday, most parts of Beijing will experience heavy rainfall, with accumulated precipitation expected to exceed 100 millimeters in six hours and 150 millimeters in 24 hours. 
In seven areas including Tongzhou, Daxing, Fangshan, Mentougou, the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, Huairou, and Fengtai, six-hour rainfall totals could exceed 150 millimeters, while 24-hour accumulations could surpass 200 millimeters, CCTV reported. 
Beijing receives an average of 528 millimeters of precipitation annually, with most of it typically concentrated between June and September. Therefore the rainfall in 24 hours since Tuesday evening would likely be equivalent to more than one-third of the city's annual rainfall.
Beijing's flood control authorities ordered personnel responsible for urban waterlogging hotspots to take their posts from noon on Tuesday, with drainage equipment and flood barriers pre-positioned.
The city's flood control authorities also ordered the evacuation of people in flood- and landslide-prone areas before 6 pm on Tuesday and required work at construction sites to be suspended and mountain campsites and related tourist attractions to be closed.
Starting Wednesday, Beijing will encourage flexible work arrangements and staggered commuting, while schools may suspend classes and offline training, as well as outdoor teaching activities. Outdoor sports events will be halted, traffic controls imposed in high-risk areas, and public transport adjusted according to weather conditions and safety needs, CCTV reported. 
As significant rainfall is expected to begin affecting western and southern parts of Shandong Province on Tuesday, Jinan city has taken precautionary measures in advance, with multiple large and medium-sized reservoirs carrying out controlled pre-releases to create additional flood-control capacity and prepare for rainfall brought by the typhoon, CCTV reported. 
In Henan Province, the provincial department of water resources and provincial meteorological service jointly issued a red alert for flash floods at 8 am. It is forecast that from 8 am Tuesday to 8 am Wednesday, some mountainous areas in multiple cities and counties are at relatively high risk of flash flood.
Typhoon Dolphin's impact is far from over despite the typhoon having made landfall twice in Zhejiang. Zhang Fanghua, chief forecaster at the NMC, said on Monday that Dolphin's extensive cloud system and abundant moisture reserves have prevented its residual circulation from dissipating quickly. Instead, the residual circulation is expected to continue moving northward and westward. Over the next week, it is forecast to bring widespread and prolonged heavy rainfall to East China, North China, the Huanghuai region and even Northeast China, with some areas potentially experiencing extreme rainfall, the Science and Technology Daily reported.
Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, told the Global Times that as the typhoon moves northward, it could encounter cold air from the north, potentially bringing not only heavy rainfall but also severe convective weather. Such weather can trigger disasters such as flash floods and mudslides, cause urban flooding, and affect farmlands. 
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二 |     2025年至2035年间，中国先进制程晶圆供给将以46%的年复合增长率扩张，远高于同期国内需求17%的增速。

三 | 报告指出，中国芯片产量自给率在2026年6月已达约70%，较2010年1月的38%提升近一倍。    但高盛也表示，若以产值衡量，自给率缺口仍远高于产量数据所呈现的程度。

四 |     中芯国际是此次产能扩张的主力。高盛模型假设，2026年至2031年间，中芯国际每年将新增3万至5万片先进节点晶圆的月产能，之后至2035年每年再增加2万片。

五 |     大规模扩产将带动新一波半导体投资。高盛预测，中国芯片资本支出在2020年代将维持两位数年度增长，2030年达820亿美元，较一年前的预测大幅上调79%。    中国晶圆制造设备市场预计2027年达530亿美元，本土设备供应商市占率将从2025年的26%提高至2028年的38%。    需要指出的是，良率是制约产能有效释放的关键瓶颈。高盛假设中芯国际先进制程良率将从2026年的23%提升至2030年的50%，2035年进一步升至75%。

六 |     作为对比，台积电自2018年量产7纳米芯片以来，良率根据芯片设计和尺寸的不同已可超过90%。    

              

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Published on:11:30:35